Are You Following the Wrong Health Advice?
During World War II, military analysts were tasked with reinforcing planes that returned from combat. They carefully studied bullet hole patterns on the aircraft, noting where the most damage was concentrated—on the wings, fuselage, and tail. The logical conclusion seemed clear: reinforce these areas to improve survival rates. However, mathematician Abraham Wald pointed out a crucial flaw in their thinking. They were only looking at the planes that made it back. The planes that didn’t return—the ones shot down—weren’t part of their analysis. The real weak points, he argued, were likely in the areas that showed little to no damage on the surviving planes because hits to those sections were fatal. This insight changed how armor was applied and saved countless lives.
This is a classic example of survivorship bias—the mistake of drawing conclusions based only on the successes while ignoring the failures that never made it into the data. Now, let’s apply this to weight loss and health.
We often see amazing transformation stories—dramatic before-and-after photos, testimonials about how a certain diet or workout changed someone’s life. It’s tempting to think that if you just do what they did, you’ll get the same results. But what about all the people who tried that exact approach and failed? We don’t hear their stories as often, making it seem like success is more common than it really is.
Take any major diet trend—keto, intermittent fasting, carnivore, veganism. Each has its share of vocal proponents who claim it changed their lives. They post their successes, their new physiques, their bloodwork improvements. But what we don’t see are the countless people who tried and failed, those who developed nutritional deficiencies, those whose mental health suffered, or those who rebounded after extreme restriction.
Think of the friend who swears by their weight loss success from a specific method. They may not realize that their success could have been due to factors unrelated to the diet itself—such as overall calorie reduction, increased movement, or sheer personal discipline. Meanwhile, many others who followed the same path never saw results or, worse, ended up in worse health.
The fitness industry often glorifies stories of people who “grinded through” and “just stuck to it,” but this mindset ignores the reality that different bodies respond in different ways. Many factors—hormonal imbalances, genetics, past injuries, stress levels, sleep quality—affect weight loss and fitness outcomes.
Survivorship bias fuels an industry where people push advice based solely on their personal success. It’s not that their advice is intentionally misleading; it’s that it lacks perspective. They’re assuming that what worked for them will work for you, without considering all the people it didn’t work for.
This is where a good coach becomes invaluable. Unlike general advice from social media influencers or well-intentioned fitness enthusiasts, a coach:
Knows your background – They understand your personal history, goals, and limitations.
Uses evidence-based practices – A knowledgeable coach isn’t just passionate; they’re educated in the science of training, nutrition, and behavior change.
Adjusts strategies based on real-time feedback – Instead of rigid adherence to one method, they modify your plan based on how your body responds.
Prevents wasted effort – Instead of spinning your wheels on trendy but ineffective approaches, they guide you toward sustainable progress.
It’s easy to fall into the trap of survivorship bias when looking at health and fitness advice. Just because a method worked for some doesn’t mean it’s universally effective. By working with someone who understands both the science and your unique needs, you avoid the cycle of frustration and set yourself up for real, lasting success. The right guidance ensures that you’re not just following survivors—you’re creating your own path to thriving.